Are we really coming out of this long quiet period of solar activity?

Important: Never look directly at the Sun without using filters that are specifically designed to protect your eyes from the solar energy.


For those of us who enjoy observing our Sun, it has been a long and frustrating period of "solar minimum". Approximately every 11 years the Sun goes through what is called a "solar cycle". A solar cycle is defined by the period between flips of the Sun's magnetic field. Yes, what is north at the beginning of the solar cycle will be south at the beginning of the next cycle. During a solar cycle the amount of "solar activity" changes. One key measurement of activity is the number of sunspots that occur throughout the cycle. Solar minimum is a period of time when sunspots and other solar activities occur very infrequently. Activity is at its lowest at the beginning of the solar cycle. Solar maximum is when activity is at its greatest and peaks in the middle of the solar cycle. And then the decline begins again. We are coming to the end of Solar Cycle 24. The activity decline of this cycle began in 2015.  And  there has been a steep decline in solar activity and an extraordinarily low number of sunspots over the past two years.  If forecasts our accurate, Solar Cycle 25 will begin sometime between April and July of this year. And from that point solar activity should begin to increase and reach solar maximum in 2025. See the charts below.



https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update

published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC

The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7^th longest on record (11.4 years).

______

Below are some pictures I took during the last solar maximum. The larger images were taken with a 5" refractor using a white-light filter imaging the Sun's photosphere. The smaller Sun on the top picture was taken with a 60mm Hydrogen-Alpha telescope imaging the Sun's chromosphere. As you can see there is quite a bit of activity in these pictures.

I have taken very few solar pictures in the past couple of years. The sun appeared as barren as desert for long periods of time. Every now and then a nice surprise happens like at the Winter Star Party this February. No sunspots, however there was a very nice prominence activity (relatively speaking).

Let's keep our fingers crossed that Solar Cycle will begin as predicted and increased solar activity follow.

Clear Skies!

Phil